Fire Season 2023 Recap & Predictions for 2024
Well, with over 122 active wildfires across the country and 32 classified as out of control, fire season 2024 has officially started in Canada. With almost 400,000 hectares of Canadian land burned since 2024 began, experts are bracing for the upcoming summer season. After last season's devastation, we are doing everything possible to prepare ourselves for another fiery summer. Fire experts and weather predictions hint at a busy spring, and with May and June weather being the prognosticators for the remainder of the season, we are keeping a watchful eye out for signs of the times to come.
Fire Season 2023: A Brief Recap
Last year's fire season was one of the biggest seasons for Hummingbird Drones (our parent company), British Columbia, and Canada as a whole. Marked as the hottest year globally, the temperatures reached in the summer of 2023 played a significant role in the severity of the devastating fire season. In BC alone, fires devoured over 2.84 million hectares of forest and land, causing tens of thousands of people to be forced to evacuate. For reference, Canada sees about 2.5 million hectares burned annually, but the 2023 season, spanning from April to October, reached new highs with a staggering 18.5 million hectares scorched. It was an unprecedented year, shattering the record previously held by the 7.5 million hectares destroyed in 1989 and truly underscoring the dramatic impacts of climate on our landscapes.
The unfortunate timing of several factors led to the extreme season. To kick it off, drought conditions from the fall of 2022 carried over into 2023, causing fuel layers to stay dry and susceptible to ignition (fuel is organic material available to burn, i.e. leaves, trees, and plants). Next, if there were any indicator of what was to come, it would be the concerning temperatures in May and June– pivotal months in determining the severity of fires in Canada. Blistering and boiling temperatures in May and June led to faster snow melts and quickly dried-out fuels. Further, precipitation levels in the spring and summer of 2023 were deficient and paired with record temperature highs in June and July; these factors made for perfect fire conditions. To top it all off, in August, northern BC experienced significant wind events caused by a dry cold front, adding chaos to an already hectic summer and causing unpredictable fire behavior and uncontrollable spreading.
Image from summer 2023 fire season by Hummingbird Drones crew.
Not only was the number of hectares burned last year extortionate, but the size of hundreds of fires reached megafire size. Megafires are most commonly defined by size but have also been defined by differentiating factors like behavior and resistance to control to aspects like economic costs or human fatalities. Typically, a size threshold has been adopted in North America, and mega fires are fires with a burn area greater than 10,000 hectares. That is the size of around 14,000 football fields. Keeping with this logic, the largest fire in Canada in 2023 was the 1,224,938-hectare fire near La Grande Reservoir 3 in Quebec, reaching what could be characterized as "terafire" (or monster fire) size. To put it plainly, the emotionally and physically draining 2023 fire season was unprecedented and marked a turning point in British Columbia's history with wildfires. With some of the most destructive fires seen to date and six lives lost from BC's wildland firefighting community, the summer 2023 fire season will not be easily forgotten. We want to extend a huge thank you to everyone who was involved in fighting the fires and who will continue to do so. Your unwavering dedication, courage, and resilience in the face of an immensely challenging season is nothing short of heroic.
How Drones Contributed to Wildfire Response Efforts:
Drones were a significant part of the 2023 season, attested by the record-breaking number of fire days that Hummingbird Drones had over the season, with the last deployment ending in mid-October. Throughout provinces across the country, Hummingbird crews spent countless sleepless nights flying drones over the fires with infrared cameras, detecting and mapping hotspots. Typically, drone crews are deployed in the later stages of fires, after the initial attack and when crews are beginning the "mop-up." Mop-up crews are looking for remaining embers, known as hotspots, that could reignite. In wet conditions, the hotspots remain on the surface and are generally easy to find, identifiable by smoke. However, in dryer landscapes, hotspots can start to burn underground, making them harder to identify and more dangerous. Heat traveling underground can cause fires that can burn for weeks and even months. Fires that burn underground over winter are called "holdover" or "zombie" fires and have the potential to resurface come spring. These zombie fires have reared their fiery heads, particularly up in northeastern British Columbia, and are the main cause of an early start to the 2024 wildfire season (but more on that later). These holdover fires are where drones with infrared sensors are most beneficial. Infrared can identify the heat the underground fire emits and can be mapped using Nova’s Hotspot Detection.
Interested in using Nova in your organization’s fire suppression efforts? Book a demo with one of our Business Development Representatives today!
Infrared sensing and mapping work best at night when the rest of the surroundings are coolest, and so drones don't risk getting in the way of helicopters or planes participating in aerial firefighting. While flying drones without permission over or near wildfires is highly illegal and prohibited, it is becoming more common that the government or wildfire agencies contract drone crews to assist in response efforts. Interested in learning how you can get permission to fly over fires? Check out this article on Navigating the Special Government Interest Process.
2024 Fire Season Predictions:
As we stand in the beginning stretch of the 2024 season, let's assess the current landscape. Predicting summer outcomes can be challenging, but we can gain insights into potential developments by examining key environmental factors. This past winter was notably disappointing for skiers and snow enthusiasts across British Columbia due in large part to the ongoing multi-year drought, causing less-than-ideal powder conditions. The persistent drought conditions were evidenced by exceptionally low precipitation levels, leaving the terrain parched and vulnerable. As March concluded, approximately 100 wildfires were still active in Northern BC, and one of the holdover fires from 2023 developed into the Pantry Creek fire, which is currently threatening the community of Fort Nelson after reigniting in May. Snowpack levels are crucial in determining the risk of wildfires. During spring, melting snow increases runoff and stream flows, which can help moisten dry fuels. However, if this moisture recharge is short-lived, it accelerates the drying of fuels, thereby diminishing the chances of drought recovery this year.
Current BC Fire Map (June 6th, 2024)
However, not all hope is lost, as the sustained rainfall in May and potentially June could mitigate these conditions. The possibility of storms along the Atlantic and just south of Alberta migrating northward could mean increased precipitation levels, which could turn the tide for high-risk areas like Western Canada and Southern Quebec. However, a storm could be a double-edged sword when predicting fire activity, as an early lightning strike on dry ground could be just as devastating as a lit Molotov cocktail thrown into a forest. In good news, heat predictions for British Columbia are lower than last year, potentially providing some much-needed relief. The wildfire-prone area, which currently has 42 wildfires as of late May, is expected to experience bouts of light rain, further providing moisture that could mean all the difference during wildfire season. Experts suggest that it comes down to a potential shift from El Niño to La Niña that could bring much-needed relief and aid in mitigating continuing drought conditions. Forecasters report that the El Niño is finally weakening, with a 60% chance of La Niña developing by June - August.
If you're unfamiliar with the terms El Niño and La Niña, let me explain. Essentially, El Nino and La Nina are names for opposing climate patterns that break normal weather conditions and are tracked from the Pacific Ocean. These patterns don't occur on regular schedules, appearing every two to seven years and lasting anywhere from nine months to multiple years. Weather changes caused by these periods of unusual conditions can be felt worldwide. El Nino causes warmer weather in Canada and the northern U.S., while La Nina is known as a cold event that causes wetter, colder weather in the Pacific Northwest and Canada, with temperatures getting warmer on the east coasts.
El Niño
La Niña
Fire Safety and How to be Fire Smart:
As a significant portion of fires every season are human-caused, one of the most important things you can do to prepare for the upcoming summer is to follow the basics of wildfire safety. Between 2012 and 2015, 11% of fires were started by smokers, and of the 1,387 fires listed on the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center Inc.'s database, 1,014 are designated human-caused, 96 natural, and another 277 undetermined.
We at Nova strongly encourage you all not to be that person. Be smart and be safe going into the summer. Never flick ashes or butts without being aware of your surroundings; always safely dispose of cigarettes and hot ashes. If you plan on starting a fire for your camping trip, your backyard barbecue, or evening beach party:
Never leave your fire unattended.
Ensure your fire is out cold before leaving it. Out cold means everything in and near the fire should feel cool to the touch. Dig around in the ashes to ensure no embers are lingering below. Water, sand, and dirt are great resources to help ensure your fire is completely out.
Remove any potential fuel far from your fire. Remaining firewood, sticks, or dry grass should be scattered away from your fire pit.
BC has developed the FireSmart program that helps individuals and communities prepare for fire season. The FireSmart programs help outline steps to help prepare, prevent, and mitigate against wildfire. One of the easiest things you can do as an individual is FireSmart your property. Steps include:
Installing spark arrestors on your chimneys.
Keeping your gutters clean.
Using fire-resistant siding and roofing materials, and ensuring any fencing is at least 1.5 meters from your home.
For more information on keeping your property FireSmart, visit this link or check out the infographic below.
Tips on how to be FireSmart
Stay tuned for more updates regarding the upcoming wildfire season, and don't hesitate to contact us with any questions or concerns. It's a group effort, and every little thing helps!
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Wishing everyone a safe and happy summer!
Best,
Cece and the Nova Team